Bitchin Dave's Newsletter - April 15th



As we look at the economy, and the harm that is being done to it - without any thought whatsoever - it becomes clear that we will have a significant economic downturn coming in the near term.

Of course, tariffs are a concern. But beyond that, there is a dismantling government and slashing payroll without really thinking about the broader economic impacts.  The people in power are thinking like business people.  If you lay off employees at a company, you impact those people, and the local economy, in a targeted area.  And the company can right itself and focus on whatever business, while other companies likely will compete for the business that's been dropped.

But if you lay off significant numbers of government employees, that has a broader impact to the country on the whole, as these employees provide services everywhere, and there isn't anyone who can step in to cover a lot of this lost business.  There won't be anything that can simply provide a fix.  Unemployment will go up, and businesses that support the people employed will also wind up being impacted.

Consider that if you cut a significant number of people who live in DC, then there is an inventory of apartments, there are fewer people getting their suits pressed, restaurants won't be frequented for lunch, and so on.  The downstream impact could be catastrophic.

In fact, DC has already put together a multi year forecasted budget and they see that they'll have greater than a $300 million budget shortfall each year - meaning that they won't be able to fund schools, libraries, or even pick up garbage.

Then we look at the ripple effects to housing, cost of living, and consumer confidence.  The stock market is a reflection of that to a degree and traders have no idea which way things will go and so the market goes down.  

Which will likely lead to a recession sometime later this year, possibly as early as summer.  Which some are calling a "trumpcession"

Recession
a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.

And as unemployment starts to spike, while companies are unsure what to do, the question is whether "the powers that be" can/will account for inflation appropriately. If not, we may be headed to a depression, as early as 2028 by definition.

Depression
A depression is a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. A depression may be defined as an extreme recession that lasts three or more years or that leads to a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 10% in a given year. Depressions are far less common than milder recessions. Both tend to be accompanied by relatively high unemployment and relatively low inflation.





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Leon Lederman


The name might not be a well-known household name, but Leon Lederman won a Nobel prize in Physics back in 1988, for his work with neutrinos.  Its a widely recognized piece of work that he undertook with other physicists to revolutionize how we think about subatomic particles.  And yes, you may also realize he is the discoverer of the Higgs boson particle.

But here's the thing.  In 2012, he started suffering from dementia.  The general care for it was covered under Medicare, which is good. But, as he needed more care, like an aide, or to stay at a memory care facility, Medicare didn't cover that.  

So in 2015,  his wife sold his Nobel prize for just a little over 3/4 of a million dollars.  Because they needed the money to continue to pay for his care.

A Nobel physicist who revolutionized our understanding of the universe had Medicare, and *still* had to sell his medal to cover expenses.  

He died in 2018, and the NY Times did an obituary for him: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/03/science/leon-lederman-died-particle-accelerators.html

There is something so wrong with this situation, with what we have for healthcare in a first world nation, one of the wealthiest EVER.  We can't even care for our people, even the ones that contribute to our betterment.  

What is wrong with us?!


A terrific show


LAist has another great podcast series about the space race. This one is called "the other moonshot" and it's about the black engineers who helped get us into space - all the while fighting racism. 



"Why Tariffs Won't Save Manufacturing" 


Here's a video about tariffs, and how they don't actually help anything.  They shift problems and essentially make life more expensive for everyone.

The example of cotton is a good one.


But if you want more, here's another story that looks at it from a different angle.  India changed its laws so that beverage giants have to use recycled materials in their plastic bottles. They must be 30% recycled material this year, ramping up to 60% in three years. 

But there are only a few companies that can make recycled bottles at scale - and not enough to meet the demands of the likes of Coca-Cola and Pepsi. 

One executive noted that: "We are investing in capacity, but capacity increases are two-three years away."  And so in India, the beverage companies want to take legal action because they know they can't meet the need. 

Which leads us back home. T-rump has imposed tariffs to encourage growth of American made products. He's been in office for about 3 months and expects there to be "some pain" while this gets sorted out. 

If we use the situation in India as sort of a guide, we should realize that it will take *years* for companies to figure it out and be able to make products at scale. And that is if they can do it all. 

These tariffs, then, hurt everyone. The company, the consumer, shippers, the places from whence products come. For a very long time.  



Sucking water from air?


A team of scientists have developed materials that can absorb moisture indoors, and then release it through a ventilation system later, thus making the system more efficient and keeping air dryer.

They use several base materials, but I'm seeing this as a game changer at a museum, or really any high humidity environment (Florida, I'm looking at you!)



Disney's Cotino community


You may recall that back in 2022, Disney announced plans to create a master planned community near Palm Springs. 

Well, the first part is set to open soon. Disney believes that they have fulfilled on the desire to create some kind of storybook living. 

And in a way, you could argue that this is at least a little like the original plans for Epcot. It's a place built (and managed, I think?) by Disney. 

https://people.com/disney-cotino-planned-community-reportedly-set-to-welcome-first-residents-this-spring-11699853


Insider trading?


T-rump is accused of manipulating the stock market - via the tariffs - for his own gain. That should alarm us all. I think it's right to at least see if there's  "anything there."  We deserve to know. 

Richard Nixon famously talked about never profiting from his public service and welcomed an investigation. And here we are 52 years later; all the mouthpieces for T-rump simply say it's a witch hunt and don't want to know anything about it. 

I assume it's because if it turns out to be true, then they'd have to actually do something. It's easier to just let it be, and bury their head in the sand. 


Nixon's famous line, which, incidentally, took place at Disney's Contemporary resort: 

And by the way, it is also interesting that GOP members of Congress may have been complicit.  





Bonus item: There were some people who were clamoring to ensure that they could have free-dumb from doing business with people they didn't like. You may recall the nonsense about bakers not wanting to make a wedding cake for a gay couple because it went against their beliefs. 

The Supreme Court ruled that they could discriminate, citing freedom of religion in the first amendment. 

But now we're hearing that the tables have turned and individuals and businesses are deciding not to do business with the red hat wearing crowd. This upsets that group because this was supposed to be about THEM discriminating against anyone THEY didn't like. 

And to hear them saying "it's not fair" is kind of funny. 



Bitchin' Dave's newsletter is published weekly.  Please feel free to forward it around. If you want to subscribe or unsubscribe, send an email to geezergamer92@gmail.com

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